Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07fe…4d66 other 723 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$112 (-0%) realized −$76 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%306W / 413L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$4
14 days−$1,755
30 days−$1,692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$9
sports 34% −$92
crypto 16% −$243
tech 0% −$8
world 0% −$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -38.5% -44.4% 30% 30% -11.2%
≤30d 224 -51.2% -55.8% 20% 20% -51.3%
≤90d 484 -15.6% -23.7% 33% 32% -24.8%
all 719 -4.5% -13.6% 43% 36% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 36% -10.3%
10% -21.8% 32% -18.9%
15% -29.4% 28% -26.7%
20% -36.3% 25% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$28 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses306 / 413
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)719 / 723
History coverage133d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 719 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 38¢ $55 $38 −$17 (-31%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 22¢ $29 $10 −$19 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $17 −$16 -96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$28 -56%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $30 +$35 +116%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$9 -88%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $25 +$8 +34%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$37 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $7 −$5 -73%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $21 −$14 -67%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$43 -86%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 −$5 -46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 $0 +29%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 −$49 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$30 +59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$29 -72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$9 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $50 −$49 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $46 −$35 -76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $49 +$48 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$6 -12%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $49 +$48 +97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $61 +$72 +118%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $54 +$25 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 16 $81 +$25 +31%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $19 +$24 +123%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $62 −$3 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$24 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$6 -78%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -91%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$40 -93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 −$13 -86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$59 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $29 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $56 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND Will DR Congo win on BUY 28¢ $3 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 25¢ $22 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $66 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $34 29h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $88 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 31h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 31h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $51 31h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $3 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 96¢ $3 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $2 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $5 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $5 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 7d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $16 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $3 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 77¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.34 · official $79.27 · 1739 history records