Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07fe…1ec0 other 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$24
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$43
sports 25% −$24
politics 6% −$8
economics 6% −$4
culture 5% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage133d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $369 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $314 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $296 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $313 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $773 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $464 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $551 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $540 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $441 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $342 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $565 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $384 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $126 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $607 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $470 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $202 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $130 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $262 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $61 $0 +0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $219 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $204 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $346 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $325 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $132 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $323 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 02 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $224 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $373 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 5h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 7h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 8h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 10h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 11h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 13h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $7 13h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $8 14h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $15 16h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 20h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 22h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 24h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 26h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 27h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 29h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $58 29h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $58 31h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 33h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 35h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 36h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 38h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 45h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 47h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.79 · official $56.79 (match) · 1375 history records