Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07fb…4268 other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$377per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$25
politics 37% −$22
sports 11% +$30
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 79 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 125 +1.7% -8.0% 7% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 4% -9.6%
10% -16.8% 3% -18.2%
15% -24.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.2% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$521) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×8.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage139d
Avg bet$377
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 28 $292 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $296 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $375 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $973 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $273 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $278 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $608 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $233 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $292 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 15 $289 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $347 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $311 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $324 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $242 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $252 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $803 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $700 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 04 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $332 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $246 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $878 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $296 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $319 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $1,266 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $251 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $262 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $327 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $248 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $291 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $277 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 21 $305 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $342 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $341 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 10h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 27h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $55 3d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $55 4d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 4d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 9d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 23d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $331 28d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $331 31d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $273 31d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $273 33d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $290 33d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $290 33d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $318 33d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $318 34d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $300 34d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $300 35d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $278 36d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $278 36d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $318 36d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $318 37d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $273 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 430 history records