Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:56:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
07 0x07fa…6cb3 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$192 (+14%) realized +$219 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +18.0% +6.7% 67% 67% +6.8%
≤30d 3 +18.0% +6.7% 67% 67% +6.8%
≤90d 3 +18.0% +6.7% 67% 67% +6.8%
all 3 +18.0% +6.7% 67% 67% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.7% 67% +6.8%
10% ← realistic here -3.5% 33% -3.5%
15% -12.8% 33% -12.8%
20% -21.4% 0% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$219
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $347 +$129 +37%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $346 +$58 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $346 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 88¢ $85 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 87¢ $19 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $29 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 89¢ $89 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $16 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $32 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $3 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $6 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $10 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $32 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $21 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $32 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $4 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $131 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL No 80¢ $186 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $62 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL No 88¢ $34 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 59¢ $58 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 29 history records