Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
07 0x07fa…f5cd sports 502 markets active 1h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,100 (+3%) realized +$3,061 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%182W / 316L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1,617est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$974now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$300
7 days−$381
14 days−$463
30 days+$846
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$2,507
other 0% +$108
politics 0% −$100
crypto 0% −$60
tech 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -8.3% -17.0% 31% 31% -22.4%
≤30d 101 +7.7% -2.6% 39% 38% -5.0%
≤90d 398 +3.6% -6.2% 37% 37% -5.6%
all 498 -1.5% -10.9% 37% 36% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 36% -7.0%
10% -19.4% 35% -15.9%
15% -27.2% 34% -24.0%
20% -34.4% 34% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$323 vs −$178 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$974
Realized+$3,061
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses182 / 316
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$1,617
Open positions4
Markets (closed)498 / 502
History coverage288d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 498 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Bald 53¢ 62¢ $278 $323 +$45 (+16%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 42¢ 42¢ $302 $306 +$4 (+1%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 57¢ 55¢ $319 $304 −$15 (-5%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 29¢ 34¢ $35 $41 +$6 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 221 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $203 +$271 +133%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 21 $104 −$102 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $304 +$137 +45%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $225 −$225 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $139 −$137 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $110 −$110 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 21 $137 −$134 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $260 +$264 +101%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 19 $267 −$263 -99%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua Jun 19 $216 −$213 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $229 −$224 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 18 $40 +$160 +400%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 18 $196 +$204 +104%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $253 −$3 -1%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 15 $4 −$1 -15%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Gro Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 15 $201 −$22 -11%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $87 +$100 +114%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $107 +$143 +134%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 14 $216 −$214 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $207 +$493 +238%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $315 −$308 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $206 +$244 +119%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $115 +$385 +335%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $181 +$429 +238%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Jun 13 $220 −$12 -5%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $203 −$198 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $158 −$155 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $218 −$217 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $220 −$216 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 10 $214 −$210 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $238 +$362 +152%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs VP.Prodigy (BO1) - The International Europe Open Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $201 +$140 +69%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $205 −$205 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $198 −$198 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $200 −$196 -98%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $34 +$48 +140%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $132 −$132 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 03 $167 −$164 -98%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 03 $23 −$23 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $203 +$273 +134%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $133 −$132 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 03 $119 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Cl Jun 03 $223 −$220 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 02 $132 −$130 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 02 $280 −$14 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 29¢ $36 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 42¢ $308 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $167 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $21 6h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 42¢ $203 13h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $9 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $73 21h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $47 21h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close BUY Team Bald 53¢ $269 21h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close BUY Team Bald 52¢ $13 21h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 41¢ $104 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 89¢ $441 25h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 25¢ $188 28h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 25¢ $10 28h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 25¢ $12 28h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 25¢ $10 28h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 25¢ $2 28h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 25¢ $3 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $304 31h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 43¢ $14 33h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 43¢ $43 33h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 43¢ $1 33h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 43¢ $81 33h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 11¢ $44 34h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 11¢ $62 34h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 11¢ $4 34h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Rune Eaters 25¢ $11 34h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Rune Eaters 25¢ $1 34h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Rune Eaters 25¢ $3 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $974.17 · official $974.17 (match) · 1644 history records