Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:11:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07f9…1513 sports 681 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$620 (-1%) realized −$620 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%316W / 361L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$1,322est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$750now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$205
7 days−$399
14 days−$7,246
30 days−$6,717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,249
other 1% +$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -3.1% -12.4% 52% 45% -14.3%
≤30d 272 -31.0% -37.5% 36% 35% -22.0%
≤90d 628 -6.9% -15.7% 46% 44% -12.9%
all 677 -0.5% -9.9% 47% 45% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 45% -10.4%
10% -18.6% 43% -18.9%
15% -26.4% 40% -26.8%
20% -33.6% 34% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$133 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$750
Realized−$620
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses316 / 361
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,322
Open positions4
Markets (closed)677 / 681
History coverage114d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 677 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 69¢ 67¢ $432 $420 −$12 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 59¢ 62¢ $121 $126 +$5 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 32¢ 34¢ $95 $103 +$7 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs FOKUS 56¢ 56¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $61 +$42 +70%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Jun 19 $23 +$11 +48%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $219 +$169 +77%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $126 +$96 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $197 −$197 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $227 −$225 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $123 +$93 +76%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $436 +$290 +66%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $88 −$88 -100%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) Jun 18 $165 −$165 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 18 $73 −$72 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 15 $0 $0 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $362 −$344 -95%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 15 $140 +$343 +245%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $79 +$82 +104%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $710 −$412 -58%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $298 +$175 +59%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Young Ninjas (+3.5) Jun 15 $98 +$3 +3%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $550 +$314 +57%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $43 +$22 +50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 15 $75 +$2 +3%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$199 +388%
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) Jun 14 $229 −$229 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,668 +$227 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $461 −$461 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $653 +$163 +25%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $103 −$102 -99%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $46 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $133 −$131 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $243 +$691 +285%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$10 +34%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $966 +$523 +54%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $269 +$167 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $126 −$126 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $231 +$101 +44%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $255 −$253 -99%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $79 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $210 +$105 +50%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $98 +$142 +146%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $92 −$4 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $220 −$218 -99%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 12 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,066 +$431 +40%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 11 $3 +$5 +186%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 11 $75 +$78 +104%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 11 $106 +$85 +80%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $543 +$176 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 59¢ $121 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 56¢ $103 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $26 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $406 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $8 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $7 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 32¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $750.35 · official $750.38 (match) · 2897 history records