Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07f5…7d9b other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$20
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$4
politics 24% −$6
crypto 17% −$3
culture 12% $0
economics 6% −$5
world 2% $0
sports 1% −$4
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -8.5% -17.2% 0% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 17 +3.6% -6.2% 41% 24% -13.0%
≤90d 20 -11.9% -20.3% 35% 20% -13.7%
all 21 -11.3% -19.7% 38% 19% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 19% -13.7%
10% -27.4% 10% -22.0%
15% -34.4% 5% -29.5%
20% -40.8% 0% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)21 / 25
History coverage146d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+0%)
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 25 $39 −$5 -13%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 25 $150 −$6 -4%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 17 $46 −$2 -5%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $47 −$2 -5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $126 −$4 -3%
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 06 $1 $0 -6%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1 $0 -2%
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 05 $1 $0 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +37%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 05 $5 $0 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Nuno Borges May 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January? Feb 28 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $26 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $30 1h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $73 1h
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 96¢ $43 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 77¢ $33 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 80¢ $144 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 87¢ $39 8d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $150 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 86¢ $43 8d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $45 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $97 8d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 19d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $46 19d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $13 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $101 19d
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 88¢ $1 19d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $1 19d
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 94¢ $1 19d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 19d
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL No 91¢ $1 20d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 32d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 32d
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Nuno Borges BUY Tomas Etcheverry 69¢ $1 32d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 32d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $12 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.30 · official $177.30 (match) · 81 history records