Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07f5…d680 sports 672 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,010 (-2%) realized −$975 · open −$35
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate73%484W / 175L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Fees−$333est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$144
14 days+$130
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$771
other 28% −$10
world 4% −$12
weather 3% −$94
politics 3% +$22
crypto 2% −$14
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -3.0% -12.3% 76% 24% -7.8%
≤30d 212 +1.4% -8.3% 73% 33% -9.6%
≤90d 659 -1.6% -11.0% 73% 26% -10.9%
all 659 -1.6% -11.0% 73% 26% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 26% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 9% -19.4%
15% -27.3% 5% -27.2%
20% -34.4% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$22 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$1,412
Realized−$975
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses484 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$333
Open positions10
Markets (closed)659 / 672
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$88
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 659 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $360 $361 +$1 (+0%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $323 $325 +$2 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $292 $293 +$1 (+0%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 81¢ $58 $89 +$31 (+53%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 95¢ 95¢ $85 $85 −$0 (-0%)
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+5%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $47 $49 +$3 (+5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? No 53¢ 100¢ $21 $40 +$19 (+88%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Under 43¢ 19¢ $48 $21 −$27 (-56%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Yes 43¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $60 +$7 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $28 +$2 +7%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $170 −$90 -53%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $161 +$46 +28%
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $36 +$4 +10%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $140 +$10 +7%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $496 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 26 $26 −$12 -44%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $48 +$2 +5%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $79 −$1 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $261 −$24 -9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $195 +$5 +3%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $487 +$14 +3%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 25 $186 −$32 -17%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $23 +$3 +12%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 24 $56 −$25 -45%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $106 +$4 +4%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $30 +$5 +16%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $16 +$2 +10%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $148 +$2 +2%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $58 −$25 -42%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $39 −$17 -43%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $23 +$9 +38%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Jun 22 $48 +$2 +5%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $32 −$24 -76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $68 +$2 +3%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1,128 +$74 +7%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $627 +$67 +11%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1,248 +$109 +9%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $741 +$24 +3%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $36 +$4 +12%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $202 +$1 +1%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $34 +$33 +96%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $90 −$65 -71%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +4%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $139 +$1 +1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $24 −$21 -88%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $189 +$6 +3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 +$11 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $58 31m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 32m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $7 37m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $42 37m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $7 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $0 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $18 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL No 17¢ $7 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $14 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 89¢ $0 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 89¢ $27 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $34 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL No 37¢ $73 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $70 3h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $71 3h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $161 5h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $86 5h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 51¢ $15 12h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 51¢ $5 13h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 40¢ $16 13h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $83 23h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $35 23h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $6 26h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $0 30h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $3 30h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $63 30h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $11 30h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $13 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,412.07 · official $1,410.71 (match) · 3500 history records