Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x07f1…73e8
weather · 485 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$127 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$139 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized−$139
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses215 / 566
Open positions53
Markets (closed)781 / 485
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day681.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 53 History 781 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$139
14 days−$139
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+71%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 13? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 96¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+8622%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 13? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+119%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+487%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 13? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 21? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 26? Jun 13 $0 $0 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on May 11? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 15? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 5? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 3? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on May 11? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 4? Jun 13 $0 −$1 -3818%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 20? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May Jun 13 $0 $0 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 6? Jun 13 $0 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 5? Jun 13 $0 $0 -1111%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? Jun 13 $0 +$5 +1667%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 27? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on May 23? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 21? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 22? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 4? Jun 13 $0 −$2 -1245%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 16? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 18? Jun 13 $0 +$3 +1770%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 15? Jun 13 $0 $0 -207%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on May 20? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +1036%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 30? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 14? Jun 13 $0 +$2 +930%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 4? Jun 13 $1 $0 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 12? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 14? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +247%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 19? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 8? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 5? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +264%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 13 $0 +$4 +21804%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 1? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 24? Jun 13 $0 −$1 -461%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on May 25? Jun 13 $0 $0 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on May 31? Jun 13 $0 $0 -238%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 25? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 31? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on May 19? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 23? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +800%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 21? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 22? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 26m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 32m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 781 +51.0% +36.7% 28% 26% -23.6%
≤30d 781 +51.0% +36.7% 28% 26% -23.6%
≤90d 781 +51.0% +36.7% 28% 26% -23.6%
all 781 +51.0% +36.7% 28% 26% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover681.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +36.7% 26% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here +23.6% 24% -30.9%
15% +11.6% 22% -37.6%
20% +0.7% 21% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.05 · official $27.79 (match) · 3500 history records