Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x07f1…4c7c
other · 46 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage263d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $26 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 31 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? Oct 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 08 $1 $0 +14%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $25 −$3 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 30 $9 $0 +1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $7 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $6 $0 -6%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 25 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 26% −$2
world 24% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 14% $0
culture 12% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 5% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $16 2h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 28h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $26 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $21 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $26 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $8 190d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $8 232d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $8 233d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $8 233d
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? SELL No 100¢ $7 243d
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $7 244d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 244d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 244d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $5 245d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 247d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 96¢ $20 247d
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL No 97¢ $7 247d
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL No 97¢ $5 247d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 247d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 89¢ $11 248d
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY No 97¢ $12 248d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.8%
all 45 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.47 · official $16.47 (match) · 139 history records