Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07f1…e833 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% $0
other 31% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.8% -10.2% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 16 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 16 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 0% -9.2%
all 34 -9.5% -18.2% 32% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -10.1%
10% -26.0% 0% -18.7%
15% -33.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -39.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage461d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $123 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $46 +$1 +2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $95 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $3 $0 -11%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $13 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $20 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $51 $0 -0%
Will Patrick Bertoletti win the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest? Jul 04 $5 −$1 -16%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 04 $4 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 27 $5 $0 -5%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $11 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $52 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $52 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $52 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $52 28h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 31h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $21 31h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 32h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $46 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $51 43h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $50 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $5 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $6 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $34 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $45 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records