Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:37:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
07 0x07ee…1493 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 401d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%19W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$22
politics 42% −$4
crypto 3% $0
sports 1% +$13
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 +9.2% -1.2% 50% 17% -6.3%
≤90d 11 +6.3% -3.8% 45% 18% +0.8%
all 46 +1.6% -8.1% 41% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 4% -9.2%
10% -16.9% 4% -17.9%
15% -24.9% 4% -25.8%
20% -32.3% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

401d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage401d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on May 30? Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 March 16-22? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $27 +$41 +155%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 28 $34 −$34 -98%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12? May 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 11 $23 $0 -0%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 11 $41 +$47 +114%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 9-15? Apr 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $990 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,400 on March 3? Mar 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election? Mar 13 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 13 $990 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $990 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on January 5? Jan 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on January 5? Jan 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in December 2025? Dec 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025 Dec 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.70 on November 25? Dec 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Sep 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ursula von der Leyen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Aug 27 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? Aug 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Solana ETF approved by July 31? Jul 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jul 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 30 $295 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? May 30 $295 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea el May 24 $269 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 24 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $308 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 French Open? May 19 $308 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 27d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $16 27d
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 27d
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww BUY Loma Lookboonmee 47¢ $34 27d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 43d
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? SELL No 99¢ $23 43d
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 38¢ $27 43d
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 44d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 46¢ $41 47d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $41 64d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $18 64d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $23 64d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $989 95d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 95d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $370 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 March 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $8 95d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $620 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 March 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $5 95d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $996 95d
Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election? SELL No 100¢ $999 103d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 103d
Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 103d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $982 103d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 103d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $974 103d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $340 103d
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $12 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.87 · official $13.87 (match) · 116 history records