Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07ec…f147 crypto 8 markets active 6d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$137 (-27%) realized −$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$228
sports 25% +$156
other 20% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +32.7% +20.1% 50% 50% -15.1%
≤30d 8 +19.3% +8.0% 38% 38% -37.5%
≤90d 8 +19.3% +8.0% 38% 38% -37.5%
all 8 +19.3% +8.0% 38% 38% -37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.0% 38% -37.5%
10% -2.4% 38% -43.5%
15% -11.8% 38% -48.9%
20% -20.4% 38% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$71 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$29 +175%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$10 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 08 $214 −$214 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $92 −$92 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $56 −$4 -7%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $69 +$160 +231%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $45 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $17 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $214 9d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 38¢ $52 9d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 39¢ $56 9d
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $230 10d
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $69 10d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $45 10d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 20¢ $47 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records