Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:24:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
07 0x07ec…427a crypto 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-4%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate64%47W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$15
politics 17% +$16
sports 9% −$11
other 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +3.7% -6.2% 68% 49% -6.1%
≤30d 61 -9.4% -18.0% 62% 43% -33.9%
≤90d 74 +1.6% -8.1% 64% 46% -15.5%
all 74 +1.6% -8.1% 64% 46% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 46% -15.5%
10% -16.9% 30% -23.6%
15% -24.9% 11% -31.0%
20% -32.3% 8% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses47 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage64d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $1 +$1 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $6 −$6 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records