Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x07ec…f6ea crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$65 (+12%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate85%28W / 5L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$49
other 10% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +8.8% -1.6% 85% 58% +2.7%
≤30d 33 +8.8% -1.6% 85% 58% +2.7%
≤90d 33 +8.8% -1.6% 85% 58% +2.7%
all 33 +8.8% -1.6% 85% 58% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 58% +2.7%
10% -11.0% 39% -7.1%
15% -19.6% 27% -16.1%
20% -27.5% 12% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses28 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage3d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 38h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records