Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
07 0x07e8…5a8d sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$161 (-34%) realized −$161 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$122
14 days+$122
30 days+$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$156
other 39% +$106
crypto 10% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +19.6% +8.2% 60% 60% +42.4%
≤30d 10 +19.6% +8.2% 60% 60% +42.4%
≤90d 11 +8.7% -1.6% 55% 55% +28.9%
all 16 -25.3% -32.4% 38% 38% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 38% -30.3%
10% -38.8% 31% -37.0%
15% -44.8% 25% -43.1%
20% -50.2% 19% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$25 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage135d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$68 +134%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $10 +$22 +219%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$38 +48%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$15 +145%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$6 +30%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 04 $23 −$22 -97%
T20 World Cup: Italy vs Nepal (Game 1) Feb 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 10 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs Nepal (Game 1) Feb 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Algeria leading at halftime? AND A BUY 48¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 82¢ $33 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes $10 5h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Germany to score first vs. Côte d' BUY 69¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score AND Will Türkiye win on 2026 BUY 26¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa BUY 17¢ $5 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 31¢ $10 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 6d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians $23 79d
T20 World Cup: Italy vs Nepal (Game 1) BUY Nepal 71¢ $50 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up $10 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $10 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down $10 132d
T20 World Cup: England vs Nepal (Game 1) BUY Nepal $100 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $10.00 · 29 history records