Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07e8…ed9f crypto 255 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (791 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,758 (+64%) realized +$5,758 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%209W / 521L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day791.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (791 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 730 +10.3% -0.2% 29% 24% -18.2%
≤30d 730 +10.3% -0.2% 29% 24% -18.2%
≤90d 730 +10.3% -0.2% 29% 24% -18.2%
all 730 +10.3% -0.2% 29% 24% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover791.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.2% 24% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.8% 21% -26.0%
15% -18.5% 18% -33.2%
20% -26.5% 16% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$5,758
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses209 / 521
Open positions1
Markets (closed)730 / 255
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day791.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 730 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 53¢ 66¢ $13 $17 +$3 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 54¢ 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$2 -426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +321%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +843%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$2 -142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$5 -127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -446%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$4 -260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$4 +1066%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -651%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$3 +1761%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$3 -190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$6 +1132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$4 -1321%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +163%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$4 -123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$3 -507%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -592%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$4 -127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.17 · official $13.24 · 3500 history records