Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:58:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
07 0x07e7…42e3 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$293 (+4%) realized +$494 · open −$201
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$865per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$224
other 7% −$201
crypto 5% +$363
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +25.4% +13.4% 62% 62% -2.1%
≤30d 8 +25.4% +13.4% 62% 62% -2.1%
≤90d 8 +25.4% +13.4% 62% 62% -2.1%
all 8 +25.4% +13.4% 62% 62% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.4% 62% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here +2.6% 50% -11.5%
15% -7.3% 38% -20.1%
20% -16.4% 38% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$557 vs −$733 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized+$494
Unrealized−$201
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$865
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 34¢ $557 $356 −$201 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $187 +$185 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $203 +$178 +88%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $1,593 −$1,577 -99%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P Jun 27 $504 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge Jun 27 $1,217 −$121 -10%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 27 $1,005 +$219 +22%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 27 $1,511 +$487 +32%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $998 +$1,715 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $565 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $371 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $187 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $381 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $591 12h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 76¢ $504 12h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge SELL Just Players 50¢ $1,095 13h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $1,001 14h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY Just Players 54¢ $1,217 15h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Inner Circle Academy 100¢ $1,224 15h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Inner Circle Academy 82¢ $1,005 15h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea SELL Mentality Monster 100¢ $1,998 15h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 75¢ $1,511 19h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,713 19h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 20h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $994 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.98 · official $366.40 · 18 history records