Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
07 0x07e7…26af sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$289 (-21%) realized −$275 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$331
other 28% −$382
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +116.3% +95.7% 100% 100% +95.8%
≤30d 4 +40.8% +27.4% 75% 75% -13.2%
≤90d 4 +40.8% +27.4% 75% 75% -13.2%
all 4 +40.8% +27.4% 75% 75% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.4% 75% -13.2%
10% +15.2% 75% -21.5%
15% +4.1% 50% -29.1%
20% -6.1% 50% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$382 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$452
Realized−$275
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage8d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 49¢ 48¢ $467 $452 −$14 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $107 +$117 +109%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $112 +$138 +123%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $385 −$382 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $295 +$90 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $474 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $224 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $250 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 44¢ $112 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $107 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $385 8d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $295 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.32 · official $452.32 (match) · 8 history records