Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:28:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
07 0x07e4…116a sports 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,691 (+9%) realized +$3,564 · open +$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%48W / 67L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$232est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$687now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 230d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$1,559
other 20% +$234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +85.0% +67.4% 71% 71% +76.7%
≤30d 16 -8.4% -17.1% 38% 38% -33.5%
≤90d 47 +0.3% -9.3% 40% 40% -22.1%
all 115 -6.2% -15.1% 42% 39% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 39% -12.6%
10% -23.2% 39% -21.0%
15% -30.7% 37% -28.6%
20% -37.5% 36% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$390 vs −$301 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$687
Realized+$3,564
Unrealized+$127
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses48 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$232
Open positions2
Markets (closed)115 / 118
History coverage230d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $210 $653 +$443 (+211%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 5¢ $350 $34 −$316 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $607 +$410 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $351 +$298 +85%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $345 +$998 +290%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $443 −$435 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $875 −$60 -7%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $306 +$503 +165%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $313 +$590 +188%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,039 −$1,027 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $504 −$500 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,284 −$2,250 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $709 +$497 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $409 −$404 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $61 −$60 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 29 $307 −$300 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 Winner May 24 $295 −$290 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $220 −$216 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $99 +$318 +321%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $111 −$108 -97%
LoL: Estral Esports vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 2 Winner May 05 $153 +$156 +102%
Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha May 04 $277 +$280 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 03 $452 +$421 +93%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs Team Solid (BO3) - Circuito Desafiante Pla Apr 28 $300 +$355 +118%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 26 $535 −$525 -98%
LoL: LOS vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $450 −$442 -98%
LoL: LOS vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $549 −$538 -98%
LoL: paiN Gaming vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 13 $300 −$294 -98%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 12 $28 +$30 +109%
LoL: LOS vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $200 +$502 +251%
LoL: LOS vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Apr 12 $339 −$332 -98%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $500 +$988 +198%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $300 −$295 -98%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $100 −$98 -98%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Leviatan Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 11 $400 −$171 -43%
Valorant: Team Envy vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 11 $500 −$494 -99%
LoL: RMD Gaming vs RED Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Sea Apr 08 $200 −$196 -98%
LoL: 7REX vs Team Solid (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season Apr 07 $300 +$283 +94%
LoL: RMD Gaming vs Ei Nerd Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Apr 07 $200 −$197 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs Ei Nerd Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desaf Apr 07 $200 +$412 +206%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 05 $200 −$196 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $281 +$346 +123%
LoL: RMD Gaming vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Apr 01 $232 −$227 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $500 +$393 +79%
LoL: Team Solid vs RMD Gaming (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Seas Mar 31 $113 −$111 -99%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Mar 30 $273 +$261 +96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $1,000 −$524 -52%
LoL: LOUD vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Mar 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Will France win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $719 +$877 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $214 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $355 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $607 28h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 85¢ $649 28h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $351 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 9¢ $46 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $38 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $307 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $397 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $1,859 6d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 9¢ $62 6d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 43¢ $814 6d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $809 6d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 37¢ $306 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $533 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 72¢ $504 12d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 34¢ $313 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $254 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $1,206 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $205 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $2,030 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $709 13d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 13d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14 BUY 8¢ $92 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $409 14d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 18¢ $61 20d
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, BUY Tallison Teixeira 18¢ $307 29d
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY RED Canids 44¢ $295 34d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 35¢ $220 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $687.31 · official $687.31 (match) · 241 history records