Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07e3…37b1 crypto 1215 markets active 14h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,701 (-14%) realized −$4,701 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%624W / 591L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$170
14 days−$342
30 days−$574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$3,788
sports 19% −$309
weather 2% −$519
other 1% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -13.1% -21.3% 60% 50% -37.9%
≤30d 62 -22.1% -29.5% 53% 42% -24.3%
≤90d 1215 -13.0% -21.3% 51% 48% -22.6%
all 1215 -13.0% -21.3% 51% 48% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 48% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 36% -30.0%
15% -35.7% 29% -36.8%
20% -42.0% 25% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$23 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,701
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses624 / 591
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1215 / 1215
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1215 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$6 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$22 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Cattolica (Doubles): Jecan/Pavel vs Logrippo/Ricci Jun 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $101 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $78 +$39 +50%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $60 +$12 +20%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 08 $15 +$6 +42%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $101 +$23 +23%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $100 +$19 +18%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Kamilla Rakhi Jun 07 $90 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $101 +$18 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $323 −$20 -6%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Donna Vekic vs Carole Monnet Jun 07 $100 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Quali Jun 06 $100 +$14 +14%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Sta Jun 06 $100 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 05 $101 +$30 +30%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $100 +$15 +14%
Counter-Strike: eternal premium vs Project 91 (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eu Jun 05 $100 +$19 +18%
Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 05 $45 −$45 -99%
Centurion 2: Giles Hussey vs Philip Henning Jun 05 $40 +$23 +57%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 05 $101 +$54 +53%
ITF Wuning: Rina Saigo vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 05 $100 +$13 +13%
Tyler: Hayato Matsuoka vs Henry Searle Jun 04 $33 +$2 +7%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 04 $100 +$15 +15%
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic Jun 04 $100 +$7 +7%
Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 03 $1 $0 +36%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Perez/Schuurs vs Danilina/Krunic Jun 03 $101 +$21 +21%
Birmingham (Doubles): Gibson/Tjen vs Sawangkaew/Tang Jun 03 $100 +$9 +8%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Mitchell Krueger Jun 03 $96 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 1? Jun 02 $19 +$46 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 02 $20 +$34 +170%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 2? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $8 +$25 +317%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 14h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $30 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $20 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $20 4d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Panathinaikos 34¢ $41 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $101 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $116 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 7d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Katie Boulter 83¢ $60 7d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Nikola Bartunkova 78¢ $101 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 73¢ $101 7d
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow BUY CSKA Moscow 70¢ $15 9d
Cattolica (Doubles): Jecan/Pavel vs Logrippo/Ricci BUY Jecan/Pavel 94¢ $100 9d
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China BUY Nepal 84¢ $100 9d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $101 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? BUY No 68¢ $102 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? SELL Up 100¢ $323 9d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Kamilla Rakhi BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 95¢ $90 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Up 92¢ $101 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Up 92¢ $101 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Up 92¢ $101 9d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Donna Vekic vs Carole Monnet SELL Donna Vekic 100¢ $107 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records