Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x07e0…1db9
crypto · 590 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$1,036 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,106 · open −$155
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,124
Realized+$1,106
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses270 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions82
Markets (closed)506 / 590
History coverage659d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 82 History 506 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$288
14 days+$245
30 days+$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $503 $593 +$90 (+18%)
Over $1.5B crypto hack value in 2026? Yes 57¢ 72¢ $135 $172 +$37 (+27%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes 41¢ 26¢ $146 $91 −$54 (-37%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $84 $89 +$5 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $64 $80 +$16 (+25%)
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $72 $75 +$3 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+2%)
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? Yes 71¢ 83¢ $52 $61 +$9 (+17%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31? Yes 50¢ 65¢ $43 $56 +$13 (+30%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 69¢ $44 $56 +$11 (+26%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $70 $43 −$27 (-38%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 76¢ 82¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+9%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 15¢ 52¢ $12 $40 +$29 (+247%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $37 $40 +$3 (+8%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 27¢ 40¢ $27 $40 +$12 (+46%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 53¢ 38¢ $53 $38 −$16 (-29%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $43 $38 −$6 (-13%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $78 $35 −$43 (-55%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? Yes 26¢ 15¢ $52 $30 −$22 (-42%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 27¢ 28¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Another crypto hack over $100m by June 30? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $24 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $19 $20 +$2 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $14 $17 +$2 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $21 −$19 -90%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $44 +$47 +106%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $75 +$10 +14%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $23 −$4 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $167 +$4 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $28 −$21 -76%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$15 +100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1510+? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 11 $42 −$41 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 −$11 -97%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $51 +$9 +17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? Jun 10 $39 +$9 +23%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $89 +$96 +108%
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $10B? Jun 10 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $11B? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $10.25B? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $98 +$36 +36%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 10 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 08 $52 −$31 -60%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $299 +$139 +46%
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $37 +$7 +20%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $7 +$13 +194%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 06 $172 $0 -0%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $137 +$82 +60%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June? Jun 05 $43 +$7 +16%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $48 −$48 -100%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 05 $159 +$25 +16%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 05 $19 +$13 +66%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $4 +$16 +426%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $421 +$16 +4%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $37 +$3 +9%
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.5B? Jun 03 $110 −$66 -60%
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $12.0B? Jun 03 $54 −$52 -97%
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience o Jun 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Will "Tesla" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 03 $23 −$23 -98%
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 03 $9 −$9 -98%
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of Jun 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Will GitLab (GTLB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 02 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 02 $52 −$51 -98%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $274 +$2 +1%
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise Q2 Cloud and AI revenue be above $6.5B Jun 01 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise Q2 Cloud and AI revenue be above $7.0B Jun 01 $28 +$28 +98%
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise Q2 Cloud and AI revenue be above $7.5B Jun 01 $37 +$73 +198%
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise Q2 Cloud and AI revenue be above $8.0B Jun 01 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.0B? Jun 01 $40 −$39 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 45% +$563
other 17% −$177
world 16% +$1,038
finance 9% −$126
politics 6% −$73
tech 4% −$44
economics 3% −$38
sports 1% −$187
weather 0% +$2
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 24m
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 29m
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? BUY Yes 100¢ $95 29m
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 41m
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 BUY No 27¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 91¢ $78 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 92¢ $13 1h
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 BUY No 27¢ $23 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 90¢ $45 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 5h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 20¢ $19 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $4 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $7 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $12 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $170 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $167 7h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY No 76¢ $38 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 80¢ $40 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 11¢ $5 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 9¢ $10 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 13h
Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 15h
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 23h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 11? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 24h
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 25h
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -11.9% -20.3% 52% 41% +6.5%
≤30d 129 -4.1% -13.2% 48% 34% -5.7%
≤90d 263 +2.0% -7.7% 52% 33% -6.5%
all 506 -2.1% -11.4% 53% 37% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 37% -5.1%
10% -19.9% 22% -14.2%
15% -27.6% 15% -22.5%
20% -34.7% 13% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,124.17 · official $2,138.74 (match) · 2826 history records