Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07df…8be6 sports 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$95 (+0%) realized +$95 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%125W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$198est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$6
14 days−$207
30 days+$395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$138
world 28% +$124
other 12% +$2
crypto 10% −$299
politics 3% +$12
tech 3% +$66
weather 3% −$9
finance 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -12.9% -21.2% 27% 18% -9.3%
≤30d 72 -7.8% -16.5% 43% 36% -6.2%
≤90d 254 -8.2% -16.9% 49% 39% -10.7%
all 254 -8.2% -16.9% 49% 39% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 39% -10.7%
10% -24.9% 32% -19.3%
15% -32.1% 22% -27.1%
20% -38.8% 15% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$39 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses125 / 129
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions0
Markets (closed)254 / 254
History coverage52d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 254 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $100 −$15 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $200 +$143 +71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $270 −$5 -2%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $200 −$5 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $650 +$90 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $200 +$17 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $200 −$120 -60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $200 −$20 -10%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $200 −$65 -33%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $50 −$7 -14%
Will Indonesia vs. Mozambique end in a draw? Jun 09 $184 −$109 -59%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $100 −$3 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $150 +$143 +95%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $100 +$34 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $100 +$47 +47%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 30 $41 −$5 -13%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $100 +$45 +45%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $100 +$50 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $150 −$4 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $250 +$395 +158%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $700 −$246 -35%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 28 $190 −$178 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $160 +$104 +65%
Petrojet SC leading at halftime? May 28 $90 +$156 +173%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $130 +$37 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $150 −$113 -76%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Blockx May 26 $100 −$1 -2%
Little Rock: Hiroki Moriya vs Timo Legout May 26 $100 −$64 -64%
Chisinau: Francesco Maestrelli vs Kimmer Coppejans May 26 $100 +$51 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 26 $180 +$8 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $150 +$92 +62%
Vicenza: Lautaro Midon vs Joao Lucas Da Silva May 26 $150 +$2 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 26 $892 +$46 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 26 $100 +$18 +18%
Roland Garros WTA: Claire Liu vs Moyuka Uchijima May 26 $100 +$49 +49%
Kosice: Kilian Feldbausch vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly May 26 $100 −$66 -66%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $250 +$380 +152%
Roland Garros ATP: Yibing Wu vs Marcos Giron May 25 $100 +$44 +44%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? May 25 $114 −$74 -65%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $100 −$44 -44%
Kosice: Guido Justo vs Lilian Marmousez May 25 $102 +$59 +58%
Chisinau: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 25 $100 −$13 -13%
Chisinau: Marko Topo vs Lorenzo Giustino May 25 $300 +$76 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Patrick Kypson May 25 $102 +$1 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Dellien vs Valentin Royer May 24 $100 −$65 -65%
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti May 24 $200 +$58 +29%
Yokohama F·Marinos leading at halftime? May 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $85 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $100 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 64¢ $343 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 37¢ $200 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $202 3d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $195 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $231 3d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $200 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $200 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $217 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $294 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $46 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $0 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $200 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $200 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $80 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $180 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $200 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $200 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $8 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $135 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $43 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $50 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 25¢ $200 6d
Will Indonesia vs. Mozambique end in a draw? SELL Yes $75 8d
Will Indonesia vs. Mozambique end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $184 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 23¢ $100 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 51¢ $100 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1095 history records