Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07de…5a16 other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 223L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$26
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$47
sports 22% −$22
politics 8% −$6
economics 7% −$6
crypto 6% −$5
culture 6% −$6
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage133d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $158 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $309 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $450 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $377 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $592 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $364 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $230 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $204 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $215 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $504 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $291 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $359 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $146 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $402 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $152 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $261 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $130 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $188 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $284 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 05 $250 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $229 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 04 $377 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $135 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $702 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $225 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $236 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $616 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $148 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 1h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 2h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 4h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 6h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $55 7h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 9h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 10h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 11h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 16h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 18h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 19h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 21h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 22h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 23h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 25h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $56 26h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 28h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 30h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $56 34h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 36h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 41h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 42h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 44h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 45h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $15 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $15 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1405 history records