Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x07db…29e4 sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$173 (+17%) realized +$195 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%33W / 30L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$41
sports 44% +$253
weather 5% −$16
world 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +31.3% +18.8% 52% 51% +21.7%
≤30d 63 +31.3% +18.8% 52% 51% +21.7%
≤90d 63 +31.3% +18.8% 52% 51% +21.7%
all 63 +31.3% +18.8% 52% 51% +21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.8% 51% +21.7%
10% ← realistic here +7.4% 46% +10.1%
15% -3.0% 44% -0.6%
20% -12.5% 41% -10.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +49% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$195
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses33 / 30
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage6d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $24 $2 −$22 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $72 +$72 +100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $19 +$27 +139%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $16 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $14 +$17 +118%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $115 +$18 +15%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $13 +$19 +146%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 +$6 +29%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 −$20 -90%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $23 +$23 +101%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +43%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 +$10 +84%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 +$17 +98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $13 +$8 +58%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 +$17 +104%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$14 +68%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$23 +322%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$7 -47%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$11 -57%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$8 +106%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $11 −$2 -21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$19 +189%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $8 +$14 +172%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 −$9 -56%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $117 −$44 -38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$5 -34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $24 +$15 +62%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $8 +$13 +156%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 57m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $144 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $52 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $46 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 41¢ $21 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $16 15h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $31 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $14 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $33 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $132 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $20 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $24 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 28h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $16 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $19 38h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 38h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 39h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $13 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $15 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.95 · official $17.82 (match) · 126 history records