Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

07 0x07da…e10f other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d

COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

Total PnL +$139 (+13%) realized +$109 · open +$30

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate63%17W / 10L

Drawdown57%max

Avg bet$38per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit21%portable

Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$33

7 days+$53

14 days+$84

30 days+$91

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)+12.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+40.9%	+27.4%	67%	56%	-2.2%
≤30d	27	+24.7%	+12.9%	63%	52%	+0.3%
≤90d	27	+24.7%	+12.9%	63%	52%	+0.3%
all	27	+24.7%	+12.9%	63%	52%	+0.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+12.9%	52%	+0.3%
10%	+2.1%	41%	-9.3%
15%	-7.8%	41%	-18.1%
20%	-16.8%	30%	-26.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +25% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +5% → late +43% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage

Net worth$81

Realized+$109

Unrealized+$30

Win rate (resolved)63%

Wins / losses17 / 10

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)27 / 29

History coverage15d

Avg bet$38

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown57%

Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	20¢	$28	$69	+$42 (+150%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	44¢	22¢	$23	$12	−$11 (-49%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$25	+$24	+95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$29	−$4	-14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$62	+$13	+22%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$50	−$41	-81%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$40	+$15	+36%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$81	+$49	+60%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	Jun 26	$5	$0	+7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$70	−$22	-31%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	Jun 25	$2	−$1	-64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$189	−$33	-17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$6	+$28	+468%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	+$7	+74%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$84	+$7	+8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$10	+$5	+53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$9	+$1	+17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$7	+$1	+16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$3	+$4	+143%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$5	−$2	-39%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$20	+$1	+5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$100	+$46	+46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$12	−$12	-98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$12	+$5	+46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$8	+$14	+181%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5	+$3	+54%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	37¢	$9	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	37¢	$14	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	37¢	$18	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	36¢	$35	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	37¢	$61	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	41¢	$49	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	50¢	$25	9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	17¢	$20	9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	18¢	$5	9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	45¢	$56	39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	19¢	$20	40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	45¢	$93	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	33¢	$20	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	32¢	$8	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$30	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	18¢	$9	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	72¢	$20	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	72¢	$20	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$41	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$40	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	25¢	$24	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	44¢	$45	4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	SELL Yes	15¢	$1	4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY Yes	39¢	$2	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	44¢	$41	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	43¢	$17	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	44¢	$39	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	55¢	$105	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	55¢	$59	4d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	BUY No	92¢	$5	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.10 · official $81.10 (match) · 91 history records