Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07d8…294a sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$43,705 (-16%) realized −$44,463 · open +$758
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%22W / 15L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,171per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$3,423est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$6,333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$423
7 days−$13,111
14 days−$47,420
30 days−$47,420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$46,593
other 0% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.0% -17.6% 61% 50% -26.9%
≤30d 37 -11.6% -20.0% 59% 46% -25.6%
≤90d 37 -11.6% -20.0% 59% 46% -25.6%
all 37 -11.6% -20.0% 59% 46% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 46% -25.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 24% -32.7%
15% -34.6% 8% -39.2%
20% -41.0% 3% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$11,033) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,498 vs −$5,359 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$6,333
Realized−$44,463
Unrealized+$758
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses22 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$3,423
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage12d
Avg bet$7,171
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 88¢ 100¢ $5,575 $6,333 +$758 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $839 −$557 -66%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $1,001 +$99 +10%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $51 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $51 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $51 +$17 +32%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $51 +$17 +33%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1,291 +$221 +17%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,852 +$449 +24%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1,563 +$289 +18%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $4,441 −$2,482 -56%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $1,136 +$179 +16%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $16,506 −$12,680 -77%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $22,623 −$6,508 -29%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15,526 +$7,420 +48%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $17 −$16 -94%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $95 +$12 +13%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $7,587 −$7,587 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $11,033 −$3,455 -31%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10,081 +$1,974 +20%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10,144 +$768 +8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $12,421 −$4,456 -36%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $9,040 −$6,748 -75%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $12,644 +$4,538 +36%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $11,436 −$6,148 -54%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $11,012 +$390 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $9,555 +$1,509 +16%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6,804 −$4,924 -72%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5,624 +$1,198 +21%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $4,304 +$1,319 +31%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3,911 +$398 +10%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $7,333 −$3,446 -47%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6,070 +$1,249 +21%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $27,077 −$21,269 -79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20,136 +$6,864 +34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $12,480 +$3,520 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 31¢ $282 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 88¢ $4,591 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 88¢ $1,004 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 90¢ $839 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 14¢ $32 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? SELL Yes 13¢ $33 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 19¢ $68 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 11h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $205 11h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $31 11h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $49 11h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $50 11h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $121 11h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $91 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,333.20 · official $6,333.20 (match) · 185 history records