Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07d7…f0e9 crypto 683 markets active 10h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$532 (-9%) realized −$523 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate65%440W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$1
14 days−$1,478
30 days−$1,286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$533
sports 23% −$34
other 22% −$54
finance 1% +$4
politics 0% −$9
world 0% −$2
tech 0% −$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 50% -9.1%
≤30d 488 -26.1% -33.1% 60% 35% -38.2%
≤90d 673 -8.4% -17.1% 65% 43% -19.1%
all 673 -8.4% -17.1% 65% 43% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 43% -19.1%
10% -25.0% 23% -26.9%
15% -32.3% 19% -33.9%
20% -38.9% 15% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$523
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses440 / 233
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions10
Markets (closed)673 / 683
History coverage50d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 673 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 13¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $10 −$9 -91%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$15 +146%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $302 −$4 -1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $301 +$44 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Huzhou: Anastasia Zolotareva vs Chengyiyi Yuan Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $10 11h
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 0¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $10 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $10 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 83¢ $297 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 13¢ $10 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 42¢ $10 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $10 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 42¢ $10 11d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 61¢ $10 11d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $9 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.22 · official $91.22 (match) · 1408 history records