Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07d6…64fb weather 546 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,347 (-6%) realized −$2,393 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate53%287W / 250L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days−$86
14 days−$3,325
30 days−$3,098
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% −$2,696
other 13% +$60
sports 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -1.2% -10.6% 74% 63% -12.4%
≤30d 216 -8.3% -17.0% 61% 36% -18.8%
≤90d 537 -3.1% -12.4% 53% 37% -15.6%
all 537 -3.1% -12.4% 53% 37% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 37% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 24% -23.6%
15% -28.4% 14% -31.0%
20% -35.4% 9% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$26 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$521
Realized−$2,393
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses287 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)537 / 546
History coverage85d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 537 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? Yes 82¢ 90¢ $150 $164 +$14 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? No 87¢ 100¢ $66 $76 +$10 (+15%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 19? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $59 $64 +$5 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? No 91¢ 100¢ $51 $56 +$5 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? No 75¢ 72¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? No 62¢ 81¢ $28 $37 +$9 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? Yes 66¢ 74¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19? No 91¢ 86¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-5%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 19? No 89¢ 99¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $90 +$10 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? Jun 19 $144 +$34 +24%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 18 $59 +$16 +28%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 18 $67 +$16 +24%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 18 $37 +$8 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 17 $61 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $93 −$52 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $170 +$18 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $52 −$25 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$10 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $57 +$11 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 +$24 +61%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$7 +24%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 14 $221 −$219 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $542 +$72 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $30 +$6 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$8 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $53 +$14 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $106 +$24 +23%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $28 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $54 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $149 −$68 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$13 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$4 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $84 −$22 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $193 +$25 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $163 +$30 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $27 +$2 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $191 +$25 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $37 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$6 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$23 +51%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $37 −$6 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $86 −$86 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $238 +$32 +13%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $54 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $78 +$24 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $109 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $54 +$12 +23%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $162 +$12 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $21 +$8 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $280 −$17 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 76¢ $41 10m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? SELL No 66¢ $5 11m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 66¢ $5 11m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 32m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 65¢ $18 32m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $8 34m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $35 35m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 86¢ $7 40m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 42m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 86¢ $24 42m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 85¢ $32 42m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 83¢ $9 43m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? SELL No 58¢ $16 58m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? SELL No 64¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 79¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 82¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 80¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 80¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 80¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? SELL Yes 70¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? SELL No 70¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 80¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 80¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 80¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 80¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 74¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 77¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $520.80 · official $515.30 · 2777 history records