Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x07d4…8991
tech · 131 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$95 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,849 · open −$4,543
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY tech specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11,929
Realized+$2,849
Unrealized−$4,543
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses7 / 34
Open positions114
Markets (closed)41 / 131
History coverage16d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day216.9
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 114 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$36
14 days+$2,849
30 days+$2,849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $537 $873 +$335 (+62%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $473 $765 +$292 (+62%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $718 $703 −$16 (-2%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $864 $691 −$173 (-20%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 19¢ 18¢ $705 $665 −$40 (-6%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $590 $522 −$68 (-11%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $592 $517 −$75 (-13%)
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $843 $503 −$340 (-40%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 48¢ 34¢ $580 $411 −$169 (-29%)
ECB rate cut in 2026? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $629 $372 −$257 (-41%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 23¢ 15¢ $561 $371 −$191 (-34%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 43¢ 40¢ $389 $364 −$24 (-6%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $391 $364 −$26 (-7%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $242 $225 −$17 (-7%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1,027 $204 −$823 (-80%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $268 $193 −$74 (-28%)
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $166 $172 +$6 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 48¢ 56¢ $143 $169 +$26 (+19%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $144 $166 +$22 (+16%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $112 $145 +$32 (+29%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $240 $142 −$99 (-41%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $130 $140 +$10 (+8%)
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $152 $132 −$21 (-14%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $319 $116 −$202 (-64%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes 14¢ 23¢ $69 $113 +$44 (+65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $106 −$6 -6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $96 +$4 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $142 +$58 +41%
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $17 −$17 -100%
US bank failure by May 31? Jun 01 $25 −$25 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $13 −$13 -95%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$1 -33%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $29 −$29 -100%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $8 −$5 -63%
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $6 $0 -6%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $64 +$833 +1291%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $90 +$854 +950%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $0 +$3 +2357%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $62 +$691 +1121%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $110 +$880 +802%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 65% +$1,459
tech 21% −$1,737
politics 6% −$392
economics 4% −$770
world 3% −$208
finance 1% −$45
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3m
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
US bank failure by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 3h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Alibaba have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Alibaba have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Alibaba have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+59.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -32.1% -38.6% 40% 20% -0.6%
≤30d 41 +75.8% +59.0% 17% 15% +214.7%
≤90d 41 +75.8% +59.0% 17% 15% +214.7%
all 41 +75.8% +59.0% 17% 15% +214.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover216.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +59.0% 15% +214.7%
10% ← realistic here +43.8% 15% +184.5%
15% +29.9% 15% +157.0%
20% +17.2% 12% +131.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,929.32 · official $11,929.83 (match) · 3500 history records