Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07d1…439e sports 771 markets active 9h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$392 (+2%) realized +$338 · open +$54
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%369W / 313L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,987now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$131
14 days+$57
30 days+$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$54
other 14% +$43
world 12% +$166
politics 3% +$166
culture 0% −$58
crypto 0% −$2
finance 0% +$24
tech 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 +5.8% -4.3% 64% 64% -4.6%
≤30d 659 -1.4% -10.8% 54% 54% -8.1%
≤90d 662 -1.7% -11.0% 54% 53% -8.2%
all 682 -0.9% -10.4% 54% 53% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 53% -7.9%
10% -19.0% 48% -16.7%
15% -26.8% 41% -24.8%
20% -34.0% 34% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$1,987
Realized+$338
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses369 / 313
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions89
Markets (closed)682 / 771
History coverage96d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 89 History 682 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 91¢ 99¢ $55 $60 +$5 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 88¢ 100¢ $48 $55 +$7 (+14%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 70¢ 99¢ $36 $52 +$15 (+42%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 77¢ 99¢ $38 $50 +$11 (+29%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 90¢ 93¢ $46 $47 +$2 (+3%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 67¢ 90¢ $35 $47 +$12 (+35%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 97¢ $36 $45 +$8 (+22%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 40¢ 81¢ $22 $44 +$22 (+102%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 67¢ 99¢ $29 $43 +$14 (+48%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 51¢ 90¢ $24 $43 +$19 (+77%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 90¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+6%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 67¢ 87¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+30%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+7%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 79¢ 97¢ $28 $34 +$6 (+23%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 76¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 69¢ 81¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+17%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 72¢ $20 $30 +$9 (+45%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 86¢ $27 $29 +$1 (+5%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 55¢ 62¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 72¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 78¢ 94¢ $23 $27 +$5 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 293 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $36 +$5 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $52 +$6 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $18 +$11 +65%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $37 +$12 +32%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $17 +$28 +163%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $17 +$9 +52%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $28 +$22 +76%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +38%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 19 $47 +$14 +31%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 +$19 +62%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $12 +$19 +150%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 +$2 +26%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $9 +$7 +79%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $12 +$4 +36%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $17 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +24%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $16 +$16 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $12 +$4 +34%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $13 +$19 +152%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $17 +$17 +101%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 +$3 +20%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$5 +44%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $19 −$19 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $37 −$37 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $15 +$12 +83%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $25 +$25 +101%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 +$14 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $9 +$2 +27%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $22 +$28 +129%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +23%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 17 $33 +$8 +25%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $32 +$12 +40%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $13 −$12 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $13 −$12 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 +$14 +38%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +73%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $16 +$16 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$14 +42%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $32 9h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 57¢ $0 10h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 10h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 12h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 14h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 14h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 40¢ $12 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 65¢ $17 14h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $12 14h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 14h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $37 14h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 76¢ $47 14h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $18 17h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $17 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $20 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $26 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $52 17h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 39¢ $13 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 40h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $19 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,987.28 · official $1,987.29 (match) · 1313 history records