Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07d1…8ffa finance 435 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$330 (+6%) realized +$1,197 · open −$1,823
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%95W / 196L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day129.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,662now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$394
7 days+$785
14 days+$1,289
30 days+$1,197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 36% −$105
other 27% −$684
world 21% +$497
tech 14% −$716
sports 2% +$397
politics 1% −$5
economics 0% −$9
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +35.3% +22.5% 43% 40% +59.6%
≤30d 291 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 31% +34.9%
≤90d 291 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 31% +34.9%
all 291 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 31% +34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover129.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 31% +34.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 28% +22.0%
15% -26.2% 25% +10.2%
20% -33.4% 24% -0.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +50% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$4 · ×4.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$2,662
Realized+$1,197
Unrealized−$1,823
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses95 / 196
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions393
Markets (closed)291 / 435
History coverage24d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day129.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 393 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 21¢ 40¢ $169 $320 +$150 (+89%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $208 $190 −$18 (-9%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $515 $187 −$327 (-64%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $270 $132 −$138 (-51%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $217 $95 −$123 (-56%)
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $138 $90 −$48 (-35%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $86 $80 −$6 (-7%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $63 $78 +$14 (+23%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $57 $75 +$18 (+32%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 9¢ 17¢ $39 $74 +$35 (+87%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $109 $71 −$38 (-35%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $80 $69 −$11 (-13%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $68 $66 −$1 (-2%)
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $100 $59 −$41 (-41%)
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $52 $48 −$3 (-7%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $32 $44 +$11 (+34%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $106 $43 −$62 (-59%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $21 $40 +$19 (+91%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Yes 24¢ 5¢ $172 $35 −$137 (-80%)
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $29 $33 +$4 (+13%)
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 7¢ $64 $32 −$32 (-50%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $53 $29 −$24 (-46%)
Will any AI model reach 1540 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 13¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-44%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $64 $25 −$39 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 +$48 +248%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 +$3 +216%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $18 +$200 +1093%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $33 +$161 +482%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $144 +$80 +56%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 13 $23 +$63 +268%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in June? Jun 13 $0 $0 +107%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $43 +$9 +21%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $71 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +39%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$9 -83%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$3 -19%
Will SpaceX raise between $100B and $110B in its IPO? Jun 12 $0 +$14 +6639%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -75%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$6 -66%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $37 −$16 -43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $40 −$37 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +74%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $7 +$10 +142%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 12 $8 +$15 +193%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $60 +$151 +252%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$27 +382%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +123%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 6¢ $2 27m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $2 27m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 28m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 28m
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 29m
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 31m
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 31m
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,661.99 · official $2,673.86 (match) · 3500 history records