Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07cf…a9fa other 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8,199 (+11%) realized +$8,955 · open −$756
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate62%138W / 84L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day82.0pace
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$5,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$2,032
politics 43% −$604
world 4% −$303
tech 1% −$23
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 16% -10.2%
≤30d 158 +34.4% +21.6% 56% 23% -8.4%
≤90d 222 +40.1% +26.8% 62% 26% -9.3%
all 222 +40.1% +26.8% 62% 26% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.8% 26% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here +14.6% 19% -18.0%
15% +3.5% 17% -25.9%
20% -6.6% 13% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +72% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$69 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$5,207
Realized+$8,955
Unrealized−$756
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses138 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions62
Markets (closed)222 / 267
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$279
Trades / day82.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $1,500 $2,548 +$1,048 (+70%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $1,500 $452 −$1,048 (-70%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 21¢ 39¢ $215 $405 +$190 (+89%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 95¢ $273 $286 +$13 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $114 $260 +$146 (+128%)
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $34 $86 +$53 (+156%)
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $33 $83 +$50 (+154%)
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $31 $72 +$41 (+134%)
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $46 $72 +$25 (+55%)
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $31 $68 +$37 (+119%)
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $25 $68 +$43 (+172%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 35¢ 32¢ $70 $65 −$5 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $25 $62 +$37 (+147%)
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $26 $61 +$34 (+130%)
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $29 $58 +$29 (+100%)
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $22 $54 +$32 (+147%)
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $25 $48 +$23 (+91%)
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $25 $44 +$19 (+76%)
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $17 $35 +$17 (+100%)
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+35%)
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+22%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-47%)
Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+35%)
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $961 +$29 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $46 −$22 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $1,147 +$5 +0%
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 23 $68 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 23 $150 +$69 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $999 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $7 −$5 -70%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 23 $100 −$6 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in June 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 22 $144 −$6 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in June 2026? Jun 22 $154 +$11 +7%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $190 +$33 +18%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $35 +$1 +2%
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $82 −$71 -87%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $26 +$21 +82%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $744 +$47 +6%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $24 +$10 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? Jun 19 $26 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <400 tweets in June 2026? Jun 19 $730 +$7 +1%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 +$2 +338%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $48 −$43 -89%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? Jun 19 $160 −$6 -4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $45 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? Jun 18 $45 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in June 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $202 −$4 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $266 +$11 +4%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 Jun 18 $1 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets in July 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,164 +$163 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? Jun 16 $125 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in July 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $448 +$16 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $39 +$2 +4%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 35m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 35m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 40m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $787 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $203 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $961 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,206.55 · official $5,206.55 (match) · 3500 history records