Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:55:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x07ce…db5c other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,705 (-11%) realized −$1,602 · open −$1,103
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 38L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$430per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$2,114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,507
7 days+$2,483
14 days+$2,223
30 days+$2,600
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$789
crypto 15% −$2,090
sports 7% +$365
tech 6% −$624
world 3% −$692
politics 0% −$50
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +75.0% +58.3% 60% 50% +49.7%
≤30d 21 +26.0% +14.0% 38% 29% +12.0%
≤90d 21 +26.0% +14.0% 38% 29% +12.0%
all 52 -15.9% -23.9% 27% 23% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 23% -14.9%
10% -31.2% 19% -23.1%
15% -37.8% 17% -30.5%
20% -43.9% 15% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$640) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -41% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$340 vs −$157 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$2,114
Realized−$1,602
Unrealized−$1,103
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)52 / 58
History coverage198d
Avg bet$430
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $1,096 $891 −$205 (-19%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,230 $615 −$615 (-50%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $276 $324 +$48 (+17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $207 $161 −$47 (-22%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $322 $80 −$241 (-75%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $86 $43 −$43 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $103 +$553 +537%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,618 +$1,154 +71%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $696 +$922 +132%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $525 +$171 +33%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $640 −$115 -18%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +288%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will Albania vs. Luxembourg end in a draw? Jun 06 $270 −$258 -96%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $12 −$2 -16%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $12 $0 +3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $4,604 −$264 -6%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $23 −$8 -33%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $82 −$11 -14%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $109 −$13 -12%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $646 −$6 -1%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,050 +$796 +76%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi May 27 $200 −$12 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? May 27 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 18? Jan 22 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 18? Jan 22 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 18? Jan 18 $77 +$29 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on January 20? Jan 17 $840 −$799 -95%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? Jan 16 $740 −$338 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 20? Jan 15 $292 −$58 -20%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jan 15 $297 −$63 -21%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jan 14 $297 −$6 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $50 +$44 +89%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $16 mi Jan 13 $1 +$1 +145%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Jan 13 $486 +$1,001 +206%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 11 $1 $0 -50%
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Jan 06 $831 −$692 -83%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2? Jan 02 $358 −$348 -97%
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2? Jan 02 $369 −$355 -96%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 30 be between 2,2 Dec 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Dec 29 $1,437 −$164 -11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on wee Dec 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for C Dec 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Santa deliver more than 8,400,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025? Dec 25 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Santa deliver between 8,300,000,000 and 8,400,000,000 gifts for C Dec 25 $780 −$780 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $748 −$565 -76%
Will Santa deliver between 8,100,000,000 and 8,200,000,000 gifts for C Dec 25 $46 −$36 -79%
Will the fight go the distance? Dec 20 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? Dec 20 $174 −$174 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $656 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 99¢ $656 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $462 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes $103 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,772 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,618 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,618 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $696 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $696 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $525 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $525 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $331 10d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $89 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $95 13d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $183 13d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $219 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 13d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $227 13d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 13d
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 13d
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 95¢ $12 13d
Will Albania vs. Luxembourg end in a draw? SELL Yes $12 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,114.48 · official $2,069.36 · 197 history records