Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07cd…c4fe other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5,866 (-31%) realized −$5,491 · open −$375
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%4W / 18L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$794per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$1,293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$501
14 days−$501
30 days−$8,516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 51% −$7,930
politics 35% +$4,073
other 13% −$1,877
world 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -61.1% -64.8% 17% 17% -97.4%
≤90d 22 +13.3% +2.5% 18% 18% -38.4%
all 22 +13.3% +2.5% 18% 18% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 18% -38.4%
10% -7.3% 14% -44.3%
15% -16.3% 14% -49.6%
20% -24.5% 14% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +64% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,440 vs −$839 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$1,293
Realized−$5,491
Unrealized−$375
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses4 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage48d
Avg bet$794
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes $1,609 $1,167 −$441 (-27%)
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes $60 $126 +$66 (+110%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? Jun 11 $501 −$501 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7,489 −$7,489 -100%
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? May 25 $141 −$109 -77%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $97 +$20 +20%
Will Enzo Maresca be the next manager of Manchester City FC? May 22 $100 −$12 -12%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 22 $435 −$425 -98%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 18 $786 −$721 -92%
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15?? May 14 $93 +$111 +120%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 13 $61 −$18 -30%
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 31? May 13 $10 −$4 -44%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 13 $64 −$5 -8%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 13 $5,472 −$5,472 -100%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting? May 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $123 +$643 +523%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $960 +$8,985 +936%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most May 04 $178 −$83 -47%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? Apr 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? Apr 30 $36 −$36 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $67 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $51 42h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $105 46h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $27 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $102 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $106 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $162 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $143 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $77 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $67 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $219 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $143 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $258 5d
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? BUY Yes $102 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $102 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $192 15d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $151 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $368 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $521 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $499 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $519 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $501 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $221 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $318 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $187 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $150 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $496 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $32 23d
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? SELL Yes $32 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $213 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,293.10 · official $1,295.82 (match) · 215 history records