Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:55:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07cc…c67a other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (185 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day185.0pace
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$310now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (185 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -5.9% -14.9% 56% 6% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -5.9% -14.9% 56% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 16 -5.9% -14.9% 56% 6% -9.7%
all 16 -5.9% -14.9% 56% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover185.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 6% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$310
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Open positions12
Markets (closed)16 / 28
History coverage4d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day185.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $78 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 93¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 29 $66 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 29 $128 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 28 $1 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $195 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $7 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $65 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $190 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $74 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $180 −$7 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $129 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $159 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $74 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 16m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 23m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 24m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 26m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 28m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 28m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 32m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 34m
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1 40m
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 78¢ $3 41m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 44m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 44m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 44m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 44m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 44m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 51m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 51m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 52m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 52m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 53m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 54m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 54m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 54m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 55m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 55m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 56m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 56m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 57m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.55 · official $309.44 (match) · 772 history records