Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
07 0x07c5…8d3f sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$27 (+10%) realized +$28 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%18W / 8L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$16
other 26% +$22
politics 8% −$21
crypto 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +28.2% +16.0% 69% 62% +2.2%
≤30d 26 +28.2% +16.0% 69% 62% +2.2%
≤90d 26 +28.2% +16.0% 69% 62% +2.2%
all 26 +28.2% +16.0% 69% 62% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.0% 62% +2.2%
10% +4.9% 58% -7.6%
15% -5.2% 54% -16.5%
20% -14.5% 50% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses18 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage136d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 34¢ 34¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 56¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +89%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$7 +24%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -92%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$4 -88%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +320%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 +$2 +16%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $20 +$10 +51%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +10%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +262%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$2 +139%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $17 47m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 48m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $25 48m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 1h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 3h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 3h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $30 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 SELL Over $0 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $1 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $8 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $11 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 23¢ $3 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $9 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $17 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 85¢ $15 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 9h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $0 10h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $30 10h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 62¢ $20 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.24 · official $61.24 (match) · 52 history records