Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07c3…b4f8 crypto 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%67W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$75
14 days−$91
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$77
other 8% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -13.8% -22.0% 37% 33% -19.9%
≤30d 170 -5.2% -14.3% 39% 31% -13.5%
≤90d 170 -5.2% -14.3% 39% 31% -13.5%
all 170 -5.2% -14.3% 39% 31% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 31% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 28% -21.8%
15% -30.0% 18% -29.3%
20% -36.8% 15% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses67 / 103
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage14d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions (75 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$6 +194%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +131%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $100 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -63%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$4 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$3 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$10 +162%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $13 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $3 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $4 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 481 history records