Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07c3…c396 crypto 365 markets active 6d ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$398 (-9%) realized −$398 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%165W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$98
14 days−$98
30 days−$585
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$632
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -4.5% -13.6% 52% 46% -16.1%
≤30d 337 -16.4% -24.4% 43% 36% -22.7%
≤90d 365 -16.1% -24.1% 45% 35% -21.8%
all 365 -16.1% -24.1% 45% 35% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 35% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 28% -29.2%
15% -38.0% 21% -36.1%
20% -44.0% 16% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$398
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses165 / 200
Open positions0
Markets (closed)365 / 365
History coverage34d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 365 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$21 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$12 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $40 −$5 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$12 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$22 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$11 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $34 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$9 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$15 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$13 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$17 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$11 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $27 +$14 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $24 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$10 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$10 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $19 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$6 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $24 −$17 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$7 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $19 +$14 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$20 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1149 history records