Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07c2…59d8 world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate54%27W / 23L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$4
other 11% −$1
politics 6% +$1
crypto 5% −$1
sports 4% +$3
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 +118.1% +97.3% 40% 7% -9.0%
≤90d 15 +118.1% +97.3% 40% 7% -9.0%
all 50 +31.6% +19.0% 54% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.0% 6% -9.0%
10% +7.7% 2% -17.7%
15% -2.7% 2% -25.6%
20% -12.3% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses27 / 23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage464d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $88 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $130 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $26 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $34 −$2 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $83 +$5 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu? Jun 20 $13 $0 +1%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will Josh Gottheimer win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of N Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 08 $12 $0 +1%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Merz events on June 5? Jun 06 $3 −$2 -53%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $13 −$1 -4%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National minority? May 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? Apr 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 16 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $19 $0 +1%
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April? Mar 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or higher on March 23? Mar 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 22 $16 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Mar 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 13 $4 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 12 $17 $0 -2%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $14 +$3 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $45 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $45 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $46 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $46 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $46 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $33 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $46 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $42 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $37 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $46 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $46 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $23 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.95 · official $34.65 · 169 history records