Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07c1…6248 crypto 341 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$2,138 (-3%) realized −$5,318 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate16%53W / 287L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$297est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$1,491
14 days−$4,153
30 days−$5,464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$2,942
crypto 37% −$1,811
other 17% −$662
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 17% -14.5%
≤30d 265 +5.0% -5.0% 15% 10% -16.8%
≤90d 340 +4.7% -5.3% 16% 10% -15.1%
all 340 +4.7% -5.3% 16% 10% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 10% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 7% -23.2%
15% -22.6% 4% -30.6%
20% -30.2% 2% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +34% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$60 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized−$5,318
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses53 / 287
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$297
Open positions1
Markets (closed)340 / 341
History coverage50d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? No 50¢ 72¢ $115 $166 +$52 (+45%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 50¢ 28¢ $218 $120 −$98 (-45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? No 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI HANJIN BRION 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? No 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 M80 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Aurora Gaming 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $226 $0 −$226 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,116 +$297 +27%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $274 −$66 -24%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $346 +$163 +47%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $846 −$192 -23%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $813 −$320 -39%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,352 −$236 -10%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $361 +$312 +86%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,671 +$102 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $378 −$20 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $336 −$14 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $378 $0 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,725 −$96 -6%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $597 −$10 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $322 −$37 -11%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $371 −$39 -11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,642 −$455 -28%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $206 +$31 +15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $634 −$153 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $270 −$85 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $197 −$49 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $200 −$50 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,020 −$212 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $300 −$100 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $222 −$61 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $287 −$94 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $135 −$18 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $1,954 +$40 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3PM ET Jun 09 $200 +$45 +23%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $357 −$100 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $200 +$32 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6AM ET Jun 08 $214 −$57 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5AM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2AM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12AM ET Jun 08 $167 −$33 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11PM ET Jun 08 $133 −$17 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10PM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8PM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7PM ET Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6PM ET Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5PM ET Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $139 −$19 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2PM ET Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $199 −$99 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12PM ET Jun 07 $213 −$57 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11AM ET Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $5 11m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $2 13m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $123 13m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $2 13m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $12 13m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $2 13m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $75 45m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $12 48m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $149 48m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $27 49m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 50m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $179 50m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 85¢ $79 59m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 84¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 84¢ $8 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 83¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 83¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 82¢ $86 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 19¢ $37 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 79¢ $63 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 79¢ $4 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 79¢ $18 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 77¢ $3 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 77¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 77¢ $31 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 76¢ $15 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 76¢ $15 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 75¢ $118 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 75¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.28 · official $286.03 · 3500 history records