Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:36:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07c0…6c23 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$6
other 21% +$1
politics 15% $0
sports 11% −$2
culture 9% +$1
tech 7% $0
weather 3% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 13 +22.2% +10.6% 8% 8% -11.3%
≤90d 13 +22.2% +10.6% 8% 8% -11.3%
all 48 +0.1% -9.5% 35% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -10.0%
10% -18.1% 2% -18.7%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.5%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage474d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $12 −$1 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $29 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $31 −$2 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $35 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $22 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $5 $0 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $30 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 18 $104 −$1 -1%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 15 $114 +$1 +0%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 14 $114 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Whitney Tilson win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $17 $0 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Las Vegas Raiders? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 73°F or higher on May 24? May 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 22 $16 $0 +2%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 16 $16 $0 -2%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? May 08 $17 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 08 $18 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 04 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 29 $18 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 24 $18 $0 +0%
SIU-Edwardsville vs. Houston Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 20? Mar 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Mar 19 $18 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $29 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $28 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $28 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 47h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $29 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $29 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 87¢ $35 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $2 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $29 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $31 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $8 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $12 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $9 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $1 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 32¢ $22 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 10¢ $4 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 11¢ $3 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $29 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records