Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07bf…fb79 world 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%33W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% −$3
other 9% −$10
politics 1% −$1
sports 1% +$10
tech 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$6
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.7% -13.8% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 30 -1.0% -10.4% 37% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 37 -0.7% -10.1% 38% 0% -9.6%
all 85 -4.9% -13.9% 39% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 4% -9.6%
10% -22.2% 2% -18.2%
15% -29.7% 1% -26.1%
20% -36.6% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses33 / 52
Open positions5
Markets (closed)85 / 90
History coverage482d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-6%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 69¢ 64¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $169 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $170 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $39 +$2 +6%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $4 −$2 -42%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $288 +$5 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $192 −$1 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $175 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $109 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $6 $0 -5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $177 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $172 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $156 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $13 +$1 +10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1,133 −$3 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $110 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $8 +$1 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $83 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $155 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $126 +$3 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $160 −$8 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $160 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $158 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $56 +$2 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $1,129 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $173 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $155 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $2,118 −$2 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $156 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $2 $0 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $986 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 13 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $35 −$2 -6%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 25 $12 +$2 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 01 $16 −$1 -5%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 30 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 16 $14 $0 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 15 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $8 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $60 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $106 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $3 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $87 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $12 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $71 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $170 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $18 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $152 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $32 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $39 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $13 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $156 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $174 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $10 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $164 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $175 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.13 · official $24.15 (match) · 365 history records