Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07be…72fb weather 273 markets active 0h ago coverage 550d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-1%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%105W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 36% +$1
crypto 21% −$2
politics 19% −$8
other 10% −$17
sports 5% −$6
economics 4% −$3
world 2% −$4
tech 2% −$3
finance 1% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.0% -9.5% 39% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 85 -0.0% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 200 -0.0% -9.6% 34% 0% -9.5%
all 271 -6.1% -15.1% 39% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 0% -10.3%
10% -23.2% 0% -18.9%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

550d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses105 / 166
Open positions2
Markets (closed)271 / 273
History coverage550d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 28? Jun 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 28? Jun 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 27 Jun 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 27? Jun 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C or below on June 27? Jun 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 26 Jun 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 25 Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 26? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 25? Jun 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 24? Jun 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ju Jun 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on June 4? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 2? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 2? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jim Carlin be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2? Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Natalie Rivera be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey Jun 01 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $22 14m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $19 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $12 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 27 SELL No 100¢ $22 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 27 BUY No 100¢ $22 9h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $11 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $18 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $19 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $23 13h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $12 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $18 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $18 16h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 17h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $12 17h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $18 21h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $23 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $16 28h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $19 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $0 33h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $29 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $11 36h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $9 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 621 history records