Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x07be…3d2b
sports · 115 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$442 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$434 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized−$434
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses68 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)110 / 115
History coverage540d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 5 History 110 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$38
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 59¢ 41¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Anyones Legend 67¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $10 −$6 -61%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $10 +$2 +16%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $20 +$3 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 26 $10 +$2 +18%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Chin Apr 25 $10 +$2 +21%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 20 $10 +$2 +20%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 20 $10 +$4 +40%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 19 $25 +$5 +21%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $20 +$11 +55%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Apr 07 $44 +$5 +11%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 26 $90 −$85 -94%
Will Bilibili Gaming win First Stand 2026? Mar 22 $27 +$11 +41%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $22 +$6 +25%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Gen.G win First Stand 2026? Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 21 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $10 $0 +3%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 21 $164 −$46 -28%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 19 $162 +$1 +1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 19 $6 −$5 -87%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 St Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) Mar 19 $21 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 9? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Mar 19 $20 −$11 -55%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) Mar 19 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 19 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO1) Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? Mar 18 $7 −$6 -87%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) Mar 18 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 18 $47 +$3 +6%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 18 $50 +$11 +22%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 18 $10 +$2 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 18 $100 +$11 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$332
other 12% −$2
politics 9% −$53
world 5% −$18
crypto 1% −$11
economics 1% +$5
tech 1% −$21
finance 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 13h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 15h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 7d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 86¢ $10 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $23 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $10 8d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 67¢ $20 11d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 14d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 84¢ $10 47d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 47d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 47d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Chin BUY Bilibili Gaming 82¢ $10 53d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 71¢ $10 54d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 83¢ $10 54d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 82¢ $25 56d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 58d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 55¢ $20 58d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 58d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 65d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 65d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 66d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $49 66d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 78d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 78d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $39 80d
Will Bilibili Gaming win First Stand 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $27 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.7% -0.8% 50% 50% -21.3%
≤30d 10 -29.3% -36.0% 40% 40% -47.1%
≤90d 53 -32.8% -39.2% 45% 38% -42.4%
all 110 -5.9% -14.9% 62% 50% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 50% -23.5%
10% -23.0% 32% -30.8%
15% -30.4% 24% -37.5%
20% -37.3% 14% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.16 · official $36.16 (match) · 371 history records