Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
07 0x07bb…fcca other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-3%) realized −$10 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$492now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$10
politics 19% −$1
crypto 17% +$1
world 16% $0
tech 12% $0
sports 3% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +19.4% +8.0% 100% 100% +10.0%
≤30d 4 -40.3% -46.0% 50% 50% -50.8%
≤90d 4 -40.3% -46.0% 50% 50% -50.8%
all 4 -40.3% -46.0% 50% 50% -50.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.0% 50% -50.8%
10% -51.1% 25% -55.5%
15% -55.9% 0% -59.8%
20% -60.2% 0% -63.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$492
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)4 / 23
History coverage16d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No 61¢ 62¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 75¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 86¢ 86¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 79¢ 78¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 78¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 81¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 87¢ 86¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 67¢ 74¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 66¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 82¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? No 66¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY No 87¢ $22 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $34 1h
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $22 1h
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $40 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $40 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 1h
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $40 1h
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $41 1h
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $41 1h
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $42 1h
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY No 61¢ $41 1h
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $40 1h
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $3 1h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY No 66¢ $3 1h
Weed rescheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e BUY No 66¢ $3 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 67¢ $7 3d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $7 4d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $6 10d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY No 77¢ $10 10d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 68¢ $15 11d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? BUY No 67¢ $5 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.61 · official $491.61 (match) · 25 history records