Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
07 0x07b9…0fbb world 359 markets active 8h ago coverage 68d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,274 (+3%) realized +$3,617 · open +$657
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate68%189W / 90L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$373per market
Trades / day47.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$25,749now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$2,308
other 12% +$4,430
politics 8% −$682
crypto 5% −$12
finance 4% +$1,028
sports 1% +$225
culture 1% +$419
tech 1% +$515
economics 0% −$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -4.5% -13.6% 59% 59% -7.6%
≤30d 121 +3.3% -6.5% 65% 49% -5.7%
≤90d 279 +12.8% +2.1% 68% 47% -2.1%
all 279 +12.8% +2.1% 68% 47% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.1% 47% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -7.7% 29% -11.4%
15% -16.6% 19% -20.0%
20% -24.8% 15% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$112 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$25,749
Realized+$3,617
Unrealized+$657
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses189 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions90
Markets (closed)279 / 359
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$373
Trades / day47.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 90 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $2,764 $2,744 −$20 (-1%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $1,815 $1,837 +$22 (+1%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $842 $897 +$56 (+7%)
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $755 $798 +$43 (+6%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 82¢ 87¢ $736 $783 +$47 (+6%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $688 $737 +$49 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $647 $703 +$56 (+9%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $544 $598 +$55 (+10%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 99¢ $481 $596 +$115 (+24%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 84¢ $548 $592 +$44 (+8%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 78¢ 84¢ $548 $592 +$44 (+8%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 90¢ $476 $543 +$67 (+14%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $495 $495 +$1 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $474 $468 −$6 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 82¢ 92¢ $410 $462 +$53 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $415 $442 +$27 (+7%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 77¢ 88¢ $384 $437 +$54 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $442 $437 −$4 (-1%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No 85¢ 86¢ $426 $428 +$2 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 99¢ $264 $396 +$133 (+50%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 69¢ 74¢ $347 $368 +$20 (+6%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $319 $345 +$25 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $392 $332 −$60 (-15%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $295 $320 +$25 (+9%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 68¢ 77¢ $274 $308 +$34 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? Jun 27 $304 −$322 -106%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Jun 27 $820 −$758 -92%
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? Jun 27 $34 −$33 -96%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Jun 27 $1 −$49 -6932%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 26 $80 +$120 +150%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $144 +$56 +39%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $122 +$78 +64%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $82 +$33 +41%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 25 $41 +$10 +24%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $43 +$21 +49%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 25 $76 +$124 +163%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $160 +$40 +25%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 25 $124 +$76 +61%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $348 +$86 +25%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $511 +$189 +37%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $226 +$74 +33%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $152 +$148 +97%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $150 +$50 +33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $75 −$27 -36%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1,750 +$540 +31%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIFA Wo Jun 23 $62 +$38 +61%
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Argentina vs Austria FIFA Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Argentina vs Austria FIFA W Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Argentina vs Austria FIF Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $274 +$126 +46%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $941 −$392 -42%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $155 −$117 -76%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 22 $18 +$4 +22%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $158 +$42 +27%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $189 +$111 +59%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $791 −$144 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $11 +$19 +170%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $156 +$44 +28%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $476 +$24 +5%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $271 +$79 +29%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Jun 18 $33 −$4 -13%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $118 +$181 +153%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $328 +$48 +15%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $31 −$13 -43%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $430 −$79 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $16 +$65 +401%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $158 +$42 +27%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $312 −$11 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $259 −$36 -14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $198 +$5 +2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $94 −$78 -82%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $212 −$42 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $36 8h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $2 9h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $3 9h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $21 9h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $9 9h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $5 9h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $12 9h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $3 9h
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? BUY No 77¢ $32 9h
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? BUY No 77¢ $7 9h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $18 9h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $3 9h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $10 9h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $3 9h
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $39 10h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 43¢ $22 11h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 44¢ $44 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $63 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $45 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 11h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $87 12h
Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the Panama vs England BUY No 58¢ $87 13h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $48 14h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 15h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $172 15h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $445 16h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $17 16h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $2 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,748.82 · official $25,748.97 (match) · 3500 history records