Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:41:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

07 0x07b5…805e other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$742 (+16%) realized +$729 · open +$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip

Net edge+16%after slip

Net WR74%break-even

Win rate87%20W / 3L

Drawdown32%max

Avg bet$189per market

Trades / day5.3pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$376

7 days+$806

14 days+$806

30 days+$806

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +74%

net ROI/market (all)+20.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+33.0%	+20.3%	87%	74%	+6.7%
≤30d	23	+33.0%	+20.3%	87%	74%	+6.7%
≤90d	23	+33.0%	+20.3%	87%	74%	+6.7%
all	23	+33.0%	+20.3%	87%	74%	+6.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+20.3%	74%	+6.7%
10%	+8.8%	48%	-3.5%
15%	-1.7%	30%	-12.8%
20%	-11.3%	26%	-21.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

15% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +33% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +30% → late +35% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$64 vs −$158 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$56

Realized+$729

Unrealized+$13

Win rate (resolved)87%

Wins / losses20 / 3

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage7d

Avg bet$189

Trades / day5.3

Drawdown32%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Yes	33¢	42¢	$43	$56	+$13 (+31%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$319	+$85	+27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$165	+$34	+20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$101	+$19	+19%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 24	$17	−$17	-98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$152	+$83	+55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$392	+$47	+12%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$14	+$48	+344%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$255	−$254	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$502	+$79	+16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$430	+$90	+21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$268	+$162	+60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$144	+$72	+50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$112	+$32	+29%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$208	−$203	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$200	+$8	+4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$267	+$281	+105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$234	+$34	+14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$186	+$48	+26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$171	+$14	+8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$129	+$44	+34%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$118	+$10	+8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$75	+$45	+60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$31	+$45	+146%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	40¢	$20	6m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$404	12m
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$23	20m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	89¢	$99	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	74¢	$201	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$20	2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$199	2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$15	2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	99¢	$29	2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$40	2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	99¢	$30	2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	99¢	$6	2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	92¢	$150	3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$17	3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	41¢	$15	4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$152	22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	89¢	$392	23h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$14	27h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$255	27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$502	33h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	90¢	$400	42h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	38¢	$30	44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$260	46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	37¢	$8	47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$144	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	77¢	$112	2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	31¢	$208	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	96¢	$200	4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$267	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.16 · official $56.16 (match) · 54 history records