Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07b5…d2b1 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$105 (-31%) realized −$105 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$156
sports 13% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +65.1% +49.4% 67% 67% -31.9%
≤90d 14 -12.9% -21.2% 43% 43% -49.9%
all 14 -12.9% -21.2% 43% 43% -49.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 43% -49.9%
10% -28.7% 43% -54.6%
15% -35.6% 36% -59.0%
20% -41.9% 29% -63.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage64d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $54 −$53 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $22 +$33 +148%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1 +$1 +148%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $13 −$3 -23%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $9 +$4 +43%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $25 +$7 +27%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $9 +$10 +105%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $96 1h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes $54 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $55 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 18d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 18d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 47d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 49d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 49d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 49d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 49d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 49d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 50d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $9 51d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $32 55d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 78¢ $25 57d
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 59d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 60d
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $9 60d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 61d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 61d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 62d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 62d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $48 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.08 · official $93.08 (match) · 31 history records