Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07b5…255e crypto 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$77 (-4%) realized −$51 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate40%37W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$184
sports 18% +$9
other 9% +$5
world 1% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +198.1% +169.7% 45% 45% -23.3%
≤30d 11 +198.1% +169.7% 45% 45% -23.3%
≤90d 11 +198.1% +169.7% 45% 45% -23.3%
all 93 +4.1% -5.8% 40% 29% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 29% -19.7%
10% -14.8% 26% -27.4%
15% -23.0% 17% -34.4%
20% -30.6% 16% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses37 / 56
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage162d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 33¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Gentle Mates 63¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $46 −$5 -11%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $9 −$3 -36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +137%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $30 +$9 +30%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $8 +$22 +291%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +149%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 27 $70 −$69 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 27 $64 +$21 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 27 $3 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 27 $80 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 27 $3 −$2 -88%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 27 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 27 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 27 $11 −$11 -99%
XRP Up or Down - January 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 27 $122 −$19 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 27 $79 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - January 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 27 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 27 $111 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 27 $35 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 27 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 27 $80 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 26 $12 +$7 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 26 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 26 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 26 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 26 $23 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 26 $4 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - January 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 26 $7 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 26 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 26 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 26 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 26 $3 +$1 +45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO5) - BLAST Bounty Playof Jan 25 $4 −$3 -72%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 3.5 Jan 25 $9 −$4 -44%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $68 +$7 +10%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $61 +$34 +55%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $12 +$17 +139%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jan 25 $7 −$3 -49%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 324: Namajunas vs. Silva (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $20 −$2 -9%
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $14 +$4 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 63¢ $7 39m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Gentle Mates 33¢ $27 40m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 15¢ $10 57m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 38¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 54¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 1¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $39 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 57¢ $22 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 37¢ $15 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 13¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 11¢ $6 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $20 20h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 16¢ $6 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $4 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 6¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 16¢ $6 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $5 22h
Will the fight be won by submission? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 32h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 90¢ $39 32h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 27¢ $6 32h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 33h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 33h
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 33h
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 34h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 34h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 34h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 7¢ $3 34h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $10 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 321 history records